Posts Tagged ‘Breeze’

Don’t Look for Big Improvements in 2010

January 7, 2010

Personal, Business Bankruptcies Increase

Despite the Increasingly upbeat talk from Washington, I don’t see turnaround in 2010. And neither do a group of economists surveyed in January by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) newspaper. The consensus: The U.S. economy will perform as poorly this decade as it did during the last one which marked the worst performance since the 1930s. The recovery seen by some in the last half of 2009 was driven in large part by government stimulus programs, which will be cut back this year. And as cautious Americans are saving more, they’re spending less on big ticket toys such as motorcycles.

“It’s easy to be dismal about the U.S. economy,” said one economist, whose outlook was seconded by another: “We’re not likely to have robust growth anytime soon.” The one bright spot cited by several economists was strength in places such as China and India, which could stimulate U.S. exports. Unfortunately, I don’t see that helping the U.S. powersports industry much, expect for OEMs like Harley-Davidson and Polaris, which have made moves in both those countries. BRP also could stand to benefit from growth outside the U.S. because of its strong international base.

The turbulence that began in the powersports industry in 2008 continued last year and will drag on through 2010, I believe. The same problems that existed last year— lack of sufficient consumer and business credit, weakened consumer confidence, a languishing housing market, lack of any meaningful new powersports products, excessive non-current inventory at the dealer level, and increased fumbling by the federal government— will continue in 2010, dampening any hope of a substantial recovery in our industry this year.

In a nutshell, I see more of the same lackluster performance for our industry in 2010 that we saw last year, and I don’t look for any real improvement in the problems that plague consumers and small businesses until 2011 or perhaps 4Q 2010, at best.

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